A closer look on the possibilities posted in Nifty 28 August 2013 : 5790+ is a possibility and Nifty 29 August 2013 : An update. The chart has it all...
Saturday 31 August 2013
Thursday 29 August 2013
Nifty 29 August 2013 : An update
This post is an update on my post Nifty 28 August 2013 : 5790+ is a possibility after the possibility of expanded became invalid... The target for next move are either 5790+ or a downward leg of 640+ points from wherever this rise finishes. Keep 6300 at the back of your minds for now...do not think much about it till 5800 is surpassed.
Wednesday 28 August 2013
Nifty 28 August 2013 : 5790+ is a possibility
The targets of both the WWs posted at Nifty 19 August 2013 : At a Critical Zone was met and in doing so Nifty has already breached some crucial LT supports. While the general trend seems to be changing, the path of the fall is not likely to be straight.
The weekly chart below shows the crucial supports / resistances of TLs and necklines. It is very clear that the red TLs are providing support near 5250 and any rise will find stiff resistance near blue TLs close to 5650-5750 band. The lower neckline near 5050 (shown in black) could be the final target for this fall.
The hourly chart below shows a WW, which is nearing completion and is ready for launching the target leg. The target could be 5790+. The possible fractals and EW counts are also annotated on the chart. 5793 is the max achievable by this expanded flat as shown. Resistances to watch out for are at 5340 and 5400. If these are re-claimed by bulls, 5790+ should be a piece of cake.
The weekly chart below shows the crucial supports / resistances of TLs and necklines. It is very clear that the red TLs are providing support near 5250 and any rise will find stiff resistance near blue TLs close to 5650-5750 band. The lower neckline near 5050 (shown in black) could be the final target for this fall.
The hourly chart below shows a WW, which is nearing completion and is ready for launching the target leg. The target could be 5790+. The possible fractals and EW counts are also annotated on the chart. 5793 is the max achievable by this expanded flat as shown. Resistances to watch out for are at 5340 and 5400. If these are re-claimed by bulls, 5790+ should be a piece of cake.
Monday 19 August 2013
Nifty 19 August 2013 : At a Critical Zone.
5370-5360 is a very critical zone for Nifty. The chart below may probably show why this is critical.
Monday 12 August 2013
SBI 12 August 2013 : An Intermediate Bounce is Due
SBI is in a very very long term corrective, which may target 1200 or lower. For the time being, it may be reaching an intermediate support level and can bounce above 1900 before resuming the down-trend.
The monthly chart below makes me perceive that either an impulse was completed at 3515 or it was the first fractal of an ED. The subsequent move is either a corrective of the entire impulse (if it is complete) or its the 2nd fractal of ED. If it is 2nd fractal of ED, then it must not go below 891 otherwise it should ideally go below 891. Presently, the C of this corrective is in progress and it should atleast test the purple LTL. A divergence in 14 day RSI is likely to take place within the corrective.
A closer look at the weekly chart shows that SBI has been moving within a broader range of 1570-2551 for an year now. The moves are in a box pattern with target of 1000 points in the direction of breach. There is a confluence zone of TLs (shown in green) near 1550 at the bottom of the box, which should provide some support. There is a WW (shown in blue), which has base line near 1920. A backtest (if not a re-claim) of this TL is due. The TL shown in Purple could be the final target of this fall. There is no immediate divergence visible in the weekly chart.
A look at the daily chart reveals that the fall has shaped up into a H&S pattern. The fall from 2551 should shape up as an impulse or an ED. That gives scope for a rise till 1976. The neckline of this H&S is shown in blue (and this is also the baseline of the WW mentioned for weekly chart). This TL will pose a resistance for any rise and is well below 1976. I expect a rise to this line and resumption of the fall till atleast the target of this H&S is met. Presently the price action is contained within both green TLs and a break out from this range will define the next move. A clear positive divergence is visible.
Trade Setup - Longs can be initiated near the green LTL for target of 1900. Breach of red UTL will provide confirmation to carry the trade and should be used to revise the SL just below green LTL.
Shorts can be initiated either near 1910 or below green LTL. Target for the short could be 1400 or lower. SL above blue TL should be used to protect the trade.
Note : All references mentioned in the trade setup is as per daily chart.
The monthly chart below makes me perceive that either an impulse was completed at 3515 or it was the first fractal of an ED. The subsequent move is either a corrective of the entire impulse (if it is complete) or its the 2nd fractal of ED. If it is 2nd fractal of ED, then it must not go below 891 otherwise it should ideally go below 891. Presently, the C of this corrective is in progress and it should atleast test the purple LTL. A divergence in 14 day RSI is likely to take place within the corrective.
A closer look at the weekly chart shows that SBI has been moving within a broader range of 1570-2551 for an year now. The moves are in a box pattern with target of 1000 points in the direction of breach. There is a confluence zone of TLs (shown in green) near 1550 at the bottom of the box, which should provide some support. There is a WW (shown in blue), which has base line near 1920. A backtest (if not a re-claim) of this TL is due. The TL shown in Purple could be the final target of this fall. There is no immediate divergence visible in the weekly chart.
A look at the daily chart reveals that the fall has shaped up into a H&S pattern. The fall from 2551 should shape up as an impulse or an ED. That gives scope for a rise till 1976. The neckline of this H&S is shown in blue (and this is also the baseline of the WW mentioned for weekly chart). This TL will pose a resistance for any rise and is well below 1976. I expect a rise to this line and resumption of the fall till atleast the target of this H&S is met. Presently the price action is contained within both green TLs and a break out from this range will define the next move. A clear positive divergence is visible.
Trade Setup - Longs can be initiated near the green LTL for target of 1900. Breach of red UTL will provide confirmation to carry the trade and should be used to revise the SL just below green LTL.
Shorts can be initiated either near 1910 or below green LTL. Target for the short could be 1400 or lower. SL above blue TL should be used to protect the trade.
Note : All references mentioned in the trade setup is as per daily chart.
Nifty 12 August 2013 : My perceptions and my wait.
The resistance for the current rise should come at the green TL where a shorting is advised.
Monday 5 August 2013
Thursday 1 August 2013
Reliance Power : Hot for delivery...correction due.
Rpower could go down to make a new low .. possibly 58-55, where it becomes a long term buy and trend will reverse. Details later.
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