Nifty 14 Nov 2013 : Possible support reached.

Nifty still continues to maintain the container I mentioned in Nifty 24 September 2013 : The container for some time to come and the inner walls of this container is already breached and breached back. The question now is whether Nifty will kiss the outer wall or it will continue downwards and test the other side.  In my perception, Nifty reached a support zone today.  If it is held, a rise towards the inner wall, which is shown with thick pink line in the chart below, may ensue. Subsequent moves may depend on the strength of the pink line.  I would still like to wait for the kiss of the outer wall (TL joining 6112-6229) which now lies close to 6450:

Nifty 29 Oct 2013 : Still likely to hang between 6000-6260

Nifty continues to maintain the container I mentioned in Nifty 24 September 2013 : The container for some time to come and the inner walls of this container is being dented.  While we wait for this to happen decisively, the current move may be developing as shown on the chart below:

 Three values need to be kept in mind.
6260 - The max blue c can do and a tick above this will make the possibility shown above invalid.  Which will lead us to the next value.
6311 - Removes the possibility of an expanded from 6142 and leads us to next value.
6336 - The minimum value for a 3 wave structure from 5118 developing as 5118-6142-5701-6336(min) to 7356 (max).

Rest after one of these shows up.



ALL THE BEST!

GOLD 11 Oct 2013:Critical near 1167.

Longs should have a SL of 1166 and shorts should keep the SL near 1434 and tighten it when it closes onto 1180.   Here is why....

Weekly

Monthly

PS.  I continue to wait till Rs 15000 or $700 is taken.

Nifty 10 October 2013 : 5500 or 6400?

The following charts are based on the presumptions made in Nifty 24 September 2013 : The container for some time to come.

Preferred Projections:    Possible 5700-5350.

Alternate Projections: Possible 6334-7360.

Nifty 29 September 2013 : Current Possibilities

The short term view posted in my post NIfty 24 September 2013 : A short term view, which is likely to take place within the containing possibilities shown in my post Nifty 24 September 2013 : The container for some time to come, has taken the least expected path in all probabilities with minor variations.  The subsequent moves mandated a review and when I did that, following possibilities emerge...

So what should be done?  Within these possibilities, longs could be initiated near recent lows with SL of 5797 for a target of 5900/5970/6100.   While Shorts can be initiated only near the thick red UTL with SL above this.  Targets for shorts could be 5810/5700/5500.  Whichever side is chosen, a SL must be an integral part of the plan.  There could be more surprises in store with Bernanke and Rajan coming up with unexpected discourses to revive their respective economies.

NIfty 24 September 2013 : A short term view.

While I worked out the container for a longer term horizon at Nifty 24 September 2013 : The container for some time to come, its the shorter term moves that will help a trader to make his moves in the market.  In the current scenario, following possibilities emerge...

 What needs to be wtched is 5798.  While a visit beyond 5960 is almost certain now, if this rise does not make a new high, it will come down to go below 5854.  If during this fall 5798 is held, the rise can be taken as z.c, if it breaches 5798, many more possibilities will surface.  Divergence in hourly needs to be watched and if seen, must be traded.

Nifty 24 September 2013 : The container for some time to come.

I had mentioned about an ET in my post Nifty 23 July 2013 : An intermediate correction. Fall may commence any time. The way moves in Nifty have evolved, my belief gets firm.  The chart below is showing how it looked in July 2013...

The chart below shows how Nifty has evolved till 23 September 2013 and what could be expected in future....
 

Nifty 20 Sep 2013 : Two Alternates and Both Should Head Higher

My perceptions on Nifty may be far - fetched but I can't think of anything better at this juncture.  The chart below shows two alternates.  Both, as I perceive, should head higher after a dip to 5700-5500 levels.  My take is that the dip should be restricted to 5680 and then the rise should resume for the final push.  6300 and 6680 are the figures I would be looking for, once 6165 is taken.  If not, even 5000 may be on the card.  Future moves may give some indications, but as of  now 5700 or so, seems to be the floor.  Not to forget that if the red counts are being followed, then ensuing rise may go through the roof.

Nifty 03 Sep 2013 : The grand finale

The ET got completed with a spike in the morning.  What followed was a rapid down move to finish the unfinished.  A back test of neckline, which was incomplete at 5118 will complete at 5080 or lower, if done tomorrow.  If the neckline holds, the targets mentioned at Nifty 31 August 2013 : Inv H&S Targeting 6680 could well be a imminent possibility.  Here is the chart :

Nifty 31 August 2013 : Inv H&S Targeting 6680

A closer look on the possibilities posted in Nifty 28 August 2013 : 5790+ is a possibility and Nifty 29 August 2013 : An update. The chart has it all...

Nifty 29 August 2013 : An update

This post is an update on my post Nifty 28 August 2013 : 5790+ is a possibility after the possibility of expanded became invalid...  The target for next move are either 5790+ or a downward leg of 640+ points from wherever this rise finishes.   Keep 6300 at the back of your minds for now...do not think much about it till 5800 is surpassed.

Nifty 28 August 2013 : 5790+ is a possibility

The targets of both the WWs posted at Nifty 19 August 2013 : At a Critical Zone was met and in doing so Nifty has already breached some crucial LT supports.  While the general trend seems to be changing, the path of the fall is not likely to be straight. 

The weekly chart below shows the crucial supports / resistances of TLs and necklines.  It is very clear that the red TLs are providing support near 5250 and any rise will find stiff resistance near blue TLs close to 5650-5750 band.  The lower neckline near 5050 (shown in black) could be the final target for this fall. 

 The hourly chart below shows a WW, which is nearing completion and is ready for launching the target leg.  The target could be 5790+.   The possible fractals and EW counts are also annotated on the chart.  5793 is the max achievable by this expanded flat as shown.   Resistances to watch out for are at 5340 and 5400.  If these are re-claimed by bulls, 5790+ should be a piece of cake.

Nifty 19 August 2013 : At a Critical Zone.

5370-5360 is a very critical zone for Nifty.  The chart below may probably show why this is critical.

SBI 12 August 2013 : An Intermediate Bounce is Due

SBI is in a very very long term corrective, which  may target 1200 or lower.  For the time being, it may be reaching an intermediate support level and can bounce above 1900 before resuming the down-trend. 

The monthly chart below makes me perceive that either an impulse was completed at 3515 or it was the first fractal of an ED.  The subsequent move is either a corrective of the entire impulse (if it is complete) or its the 2nd fractal of ED.  If it is 2nd fractal of ED, then it must not go below 891 otherwise it should ideally go below 891.  Presently, the C of this corrective is in progress and it should atleast test the purple LTL.  A divergence in 14 day RSI is likely to take place within the corrective.

A closer look at the weekly chart shows that SBI has been moving within a broader range of 1570-2551 for an year now.  The moves are in a box pattern with target of 1000 points in the direction of breach.  There is a confluence zone of TLs (shown in green) near 1550 at the bottom of the box, which should provide some support.  There is a WW (shown in blue), which has base line near 1920.  A backtest (if not a re-claim) of this TL is due.  The TL shown in Purple could be the final target of this fall.  There is no immediate divergence visible in the weekly chart.

 A look at the daily chart reveals that the fall has shaped up into a H&S pattern.  The fall from 2551 should shape up as an impulse or an ED.  That gives scope for a rise till 1976.  The neckline of this H&S is shown in blue (and this is also the baseline of the WW mentioned for weekly chart).  This TL will pose a resistance for any rise and is well below 1976.   I expect a rise to this line and resumption of the fall till atleast the target of this H&S is met.  Presently the price action is contained within both green TLs and a break out from this range will define the next move.  A clear positive divergence is visible.

Trade Setup -  Longs can be initiated near the green LTL for target of 1900.   Breach of red UTL will provide confirmation to carry the trade and should be used to revise the SL just below green LTL.

Shorts can be initiated either near 1910 or below green LTL.  Target for the short could be 1400 or lower.  SL above blue TL should be used to protect the trade. 

Note : All references mentioned in the trade setup is as per daily chart.

Nifty 12 August 2013 : My perceptions and my wait.

The resistance for the current rise should come at the green TL where a shorting is advised.

Nifty 04 August 2013 : Looks set for 5420

Posting the basic chart.  Details later...

Reliance Power : Hot for delivery...correction due.

Rpower could go down to make a new low .. possibly 58-55, where it becomes a long term buy and trend will reverse.  Details later.

Ranbaxy 29 Jul 2013 : Broken Down

I had written about Ranbaxy on 01 June 2013 at Mission 2020 for Ranbaxy.....Roughly Speaking and things did work out as expected.  However, today a very long term APF has been breached and if it is not regained soon, Ranbaxy may head towards 160-170. 

Nifty 23 July 2013 : An intermediate correction. Fall may commence any time.

I perceive that Nifty is in an ET and the present rise will be resisted near or slightly above 6100.  The chart below is the basis.

ICICI Bank 21 july 2013 : Broken down and will crash after a brief recovery.

ICICI Bank has breached an important channel in the LT.  After a brief correction, it is highly probable that it heads towards 600.

The chart below shows APFs in the LT alongwith an Inv H&S in brown color (which has possibly met its target).  Presently the price action is heading towards LTL of purple APF and is presently hitting a support line.  A bounce is expected from here before the fall is resumed.

The chart below  shows a MT WW, which targets much lower and will take a much longer time before the target is reached.  The support is shown with green arrow heads.  Presently, the purple channel needs to be used for trading.  A bounce is expected to purple UTL from here, which should be used for shorting for targets of 900, 850 and 750 roughly.

Larsen and Toubro 20 July 2013 : Can surprise both bulls and bears

LT is at a critical stage and has the potential to surprise in both directions. 

The chart below shows the longest term data that could be gathered.  As I perceive, it could be in a CT.  The support is shown in green arrow-heads and resistance is shown in red arrow-heads.  Some important TLs and APFs are also shown.  Based on the APFs, the general trend appears to be bearish, but considering the cluster of TLs near the price action, it could languish at these levels for some more time before breaking out.

 The chart below shows two wolfe waves.  The one in blue is a bearish wolfe that has an un-achievable targets (atleast so it appears at the moment).  The red one is a bullish wolfe, but it is still in the formative stage.  To complete the pattern, the price action needs to go below red LTL and in my perception, 800-850 levels may provide support.

 The chart below shows a yellow band, which is a caution zone or no trade zone.  Above this band, it could target 1075 and 1250.  If it dips below the caution zone, it has the potential to show 800 and 550.

A straddle could be the ideal trade for this one for the time being.

Results may fail to catalyze any major activity.

Reliance 19 Jul 2013 : Fall may be Imminent

Basing the inference purely on the WWs...

Bullish 

Red WW is almost done and the blue has target near 960.

Bearish 

Below 910 the fall should pick up pace.....

Maruti 08 July 2013 : In a Bear Grip

Maruti seems to be headed down for much larger dips.  It has three bearish wolfe waves.  The weekest among them targets 1200 or lower.  And....if the strongest has its say, it may dip towards 700.  Have a look...

Nifty 08 July 2013: Headed Higher.

Moving ahead from the inferences I had drawn in my last post Nifty on 24 June 2013 will be at a Crucial Zone.....Caution for Bears  .... The likely moves of Nifty in next couple of days is given in the chart below...

Infosys 07 July 2013 : A very Long term Wolfe

A Long Term Wolfe Wave

 
Two EW Alternates

Short term bullish




















Short term bearish but may rise a bit before falling.

Trade Setup

Buy and hold 2300 PE and 2600 CE.  Sq off gaining position at 2800+ or 2250-  or near red and green arrows on the first chart.

Nifty on 24 June 2013 will be at a Crucial Zone.....Caution for Bears.

Again, I am finding myself short of time to write much.  The two charts below will narrate the story.

Long Term Chart

 

Short Term Chart

 

 

DLF on 16 June 2013 - Reaching a Possible Reversal Zone

I had written about my perceptions on DLF in my post DLF: In a Corrective on 06 March 2013 with an update on 27 March 2013. The subsequent price action has developed as perceived in one of the possibilities.  Now since DLF is approaching the limits of this move, a fresh looks is necessary.  The chart below gives a comparison of the chart posted on 27 March 2013 with the chart of 14 June 2013.

 As evident from the chart above, the price action is contained in the red APF and is reaching the LTL of green APF (which is drawn in anticipation), which should provide the support, if DLF had to rise from here.  With last low at 169.75, it looks fairly lucrative for initiating a long position near the green LT (roughly 180) with a SL below the last low.

The chart below is a weekly chart and shows a broader outlook of the stock.  To me, critical areas are the cross of two blue TLs and the price action has gone below it.  the other critical area is the lower amber zone followed by the red zone.   While I expect the amber zone to be tested with a reclaim above blue TLs, I do not expect the red zone to be breached.  If red zone is held, the targets could be as shown with the hollow green arrows or more.  If the red zone is breached, the next support zone is 162 - 160 and may be further down to make a new low below 124.  The likely path is shown with pink lines.  Not to forget that the lower thick black TL is likely to be ultimate support near these levels and as long as it is intact, the bulls will have a decent opportunity for a rise, which may go to as much as 520+, but a realistic target of 290 should suffice for the time being.

EW wise, an alternate count indicates that the current fall may be restricted till 176.65.  Below this, 169.75 and 162 are the support levels that may be of importance.

Readers may choose their strategies accordingly.  Remember to keep the SLs tight.

Nifty 27 March 2013 : A Bullish Wolfe and a H&S.

Nifty charts show presence of a Head and shoulders pattern as well as a bullish Wolfe Wave. 

The H & S, which would target 5200, is shown in the chart below.

 The Wolfe Wave (WW), which targets above 6020, is shown on the charts below:

 

 Readers may choose their pick with strict SLs.  My bias is towards WW,  for which, I will have a mental SL of 5545 for the time being.

Nifty : Longer Term Perceptions

I am posting this chart for which I have many things to write.  I will do the writing part later.....Here is the chart..

Nifty 16 March 2013: Picture Gets Clearer

The see-saw in Nifty is likely to continue till March 2013 expiry and the moves are going to be oriented around 5850. The chart below endeavors to depict the path Nifty is likely to follow in the coming fortnight. There is an APF drawn in Red color (and believe me there can be many more drawn) and as I perceive the moves of Nifty  is going to be defined by this APF for some time with support from blue and green channels.

There are three WWs forming in Nifty and I expect them to compliment each other while they evolve their right shape.  I have already talked about two larger ones in my post Nifty 11 March 2013 : Two Potential Wolfe Waves and for the third to complete, Nifty must go below 5790.   

As per EW, as counted in isolation from 6112,  the fall to 5664 could be either a 3 wave or 5 wave ( and I am inclined to see it as a 3 wave form).  Inference would be that either the corrective got over at 5664 or only the A of the corrective is done.  I am taking it as A because EWO says so.  Hence B should do a minimum of 90% of A, which will take Nifty beyond 6067.  B.a again looks a clear 5 wave form to me and hence  I expect another rise, which is in line with the expectation for B.  However B.b is presently doing its own (c) (I expect (b) to be over already and (c) already started but the confirmation will come later).  Now if the fall from 5945 is B.b.(c) then it either show a 5 wave form either as an Impulse or an ED.  I am inclined for the former and expect it to complete between 5760-5720 by Monday close.  B.c and C will follow as 5 wave forms as shown on the chart.

EWO wise, at (c) it should go below (a) easily but when it rises for levels beyond 5972 it is bound to show negative divergence in hourly chart and indicate completion of B and indicate a shorting opportunity.

Trade Setup



For Bears : Good shorting opportunities would be available near or above 6070 only with SL of 6113 and target of 5650 or lower.

For Bulls : Go long between 5760 and 5705 with a SL of 5660 for a target of 6067.  Those inclined to hedge, may take 5700 options when the market opens without a gap down on Monday.

Nifty: The Possible Route

The chart below shows the possible path, which could be followed by Nifty in next two to three days.  The APFs and WW supporting this view are also marked on the chart.  The reader should not forget the WWs that were posted in this blog yesterday in Nifty 11 March 2013 : Two Potential Wolfe Waves .

Nifty 11 March 2013 : Two Potential Wolfe Waves

On Nifty there are two potential Wolfe Waves (WW).  Both shown in the chart below with the expected imaginary points that will be defined within two to three days...

Trade Setup

For Bulls -  Fresh longs can be initiated at thin red TL (roughly 5820) for a target of 5971+ SL 5776.

For Bears - Shorts can be initiated close to Red UTL with SL above Blue TL for a target of 5820, 5636, 5500, 5350.

DLF: In a Corrective

DLF shows huge promise for bulls.  But, it presently seems to be in a 4th wave corrective, which has been depicted very simply in the chart below but can confuse the hell out of best of the ellioticians.

Update of DLF as on Holi day : 27 March 2013
The chart is posted below and I must admit that I used some vibrant colors on the chart to symbolise the festival of Holi:
 

As I perceive, the green line from point 2 (in blue) alongwith LTL of blue APF should provide support to this fall, which I am assuming to be the 3rd fractal of an expanded corrective.  Broadly, we could also see a Wolfe wave forming, which is marked with blue numerals.  5th of this wolfe should go above yellow UTL close to T2 on the right corner of the chart.  The perception of an expanded corrective needs to be thrown out of the window, if and only if, the price falls below green LTL and sustains in red zone.  My perceptions of the future moves in DLF are based on the blue and + purple APFs alongwith  WW.

Pessimistically, I am expecting a rise through C (which may morph into 3rd) after the fall is done.  Target for C could be near 300, but if it turns out to be 3rd, it may well go towards 400 zone.  If and when it crosses above upper yellow line (without crossing the lower yellow line, which will make the WW invalid) , the upper yellow line will become the pivot and longs can be retained with SL inside the upper edge of the amber band.

The Trade Setup

For Bulls:  Long as close to 217-220 band, with SL below  median line of brown APF initially (which could be shifted to just below the LTL of blue APF once the price stabilise in yellow band) for a target of upper edge of amber band and beyond yellow UTL.

For Bears: Shorts can be initiated close to median or UTL of purple APF with SL above UTL of purple APF for a target of LTL of purple APF.  Not very convinced of this one but if it happens, DLF may land up close to the green line drawn at right bottom corner of the chart.  Ideally a short at 252 with SL 255 (adhoc) and a short at 280 with SL at 282 for a target of 180 gives a good risk reward setup.

Nifty : A Post Triggered by Raghu ji

 Today, my perceptions posted in my last post Nifty : The possibilities and the Trade Setup for 25 Feb 2013 had some very valid and crucial observations from Raghu ji, who writes his interpretations on Nifty at Jackpot Trades and whose precise one liners induced me into learning the TA with a little more sincerity.

I did submit my own observations to him to justify my perceptions, but, they made me keep my thinking hat ON for the entire day.  After a lot of deliberations, I still find that I am unable to find an alternative to my perceptions posted in my last post.  I find it worthwhile to post those factors that induce me to affirm these perceptions (many of which were also submitted to Raghu ji) so that readers can make a more informed decision for themselves.

Support in the Daily Chart

There are many APFs, which have there median lines and forks aligned close to the levels I mentioned yesterday.   Along with these, the channel drawn using the TL 5815-6112 and its parallel from 5548 also has its LTL near the support level.  The longer term APF on the daily chart (in red) and the broader channel, in which I expect the move to take place,  (in black) are shown in the chart below:


 

Support and Resistances in the Intraday Chart

In the intraday chart, again the APFs are aligning themselves beautifully to indicate the halt zones.  Have a look at the chart below.  The readers may find it quite cluttered up but kindly bear with me as I want to show the confluence zones of the possible APFs.  The readers may match the text of a particular color on the chart with the APFs drawn with corresponding color.  Notice the purple UTL, blue median and red UTL near 5900.  Also notice the green LTL and purple median near 5830 (which also corresponds to the support of the previous chart).   Last but not the least, notice the green median, which lies near 5980 and is the target of the WWs I posted yesterday.










Support and Resistances Provided by Three H&S patterns 

The chart below shows three thick lines in red green and blue.  All are necklines of potential  H&Ss.  Each neckline is also associated with two TLs drawn as thin lines of same color.  These TLs are basically drawn from points defining the neck to the top of the shoulders on the opposite side.  They all provide support and resistance and we need to watch the Blue neckline for the time being.


 
 Now, if we were to follow these indications, what happens to EW?  I would think of two options.

First, is to ignore the tick violating the previous high, take the closing value of the candle and continue with the assumption that an ED is over.  Consequences?  A rise is due, which may or may not stall near 5980.

Second, is to take the move from 5879 as an ET, in which case, its 5th fractal has to go beyond 5971 and C downwards has to follow.  This C can do 145 points and get over or it may continue till 377 points.

What will distinguish these two options?  As far as I can see, it can be resolved only if Nifty goes past 6112, in which case, Nifty indeed did an ED. Otherwise, consequences in both the counts would not be any different.

While we wait for the moves to tell us what is happening right now, I will still find the WW target of 5980 with a SL below baseline of the WW a very lucrative option.