Today, my perceptions posted in my last post Nifty : The possibilities and the Trade Setup for 25 Feb 2013 had some very valid and crucial observations from Raghu ji, who writes his interpretations on Nifty at Jackpot Trades and whose precise one liners induced me into learning the TA with a little more sincerity.
I did submit my own observations to him to justify my perceptions, but, they made me keep my thinking hat ON for the entire day. After a lot of deliberations, I still find that I am unable to find an alternative to my perceptions posted in my last post. I find it worthwhile to post those factors that induce me to affirm these perceptions (many of which were also submitted to Raghu ji) so that readers can make a more informed decision for themselves.
Support in the Daily Chart
There are many APFs, which have there median lines and forks aligned close to the levels I mentioned yesterday. Along with these, the channel drawn using the TL 5815-6112 and its parallel from 5548 also has its LTL near the support level. The longer term APF on the daily chart (in red) and the broader channel, in which I expect the move to take place, (in black) are shown in the chart below:
Support and Resistances in the Intraday Chart
In the intraday chart, again the APFs are aligning themselves beautifully to indicate the halt zones. Have a look at the chart below. The readers may find it quite cluttered up but kindly bear with me as I want to show the confluence zones of the possible APFs. The readers may match the text of a particular color on the chart with the APFs drawn with corresponding color. Notice the purple UTL, blue median and red UTL near 5900. Also notice the green LTL and purple median near 5830 (which also corresponds to the support of the previous chart). Last but not the least, notice the green median, which lies near 5980 and is the target of the WWs I posted yesterday.
Support and Resistances Provided by Three H&S patterns
The chart below shows three thick lines in red green and blue. All are necklines of potential H&Ss. Each neckline is also associated with two TLs drawn as thin lines of same color. These TLs are basically drawn from points defining the neck to the top of the shoulders on the opposite side. They all provide support and resistance and we need to watch the Blue neckline for the time being.
Now, if we were to follow these indications, what happens to EW? I would think of two options.
First, is to ignore the tick violating the previous high, take the closing value of the candle and continue with the assumption that an ED is over. Consequences? A rise is due, which may or may not stall near 5980.
Second, is to take the move from 5879 as an ET, in which case, its 5th fractal has to go beyond 5971 and C downwards has to follow. This C can do 145 points and get over or it may continue till 377 points.
What will distinguish these two options? As far as I can see, it can be resolved only if Nifty goes past 6112, in which case, Nifty indeed did an ED. Otherwise, consequences in both the counts would not be any different.
While we wait for the moves to tell us what is happening right now, I will still find the WW target of 5980 with a SL below baseline of the WW a very lucrative option.
I did submit my own observations to him to justify my perceptions, but, they made me keep my thinking hat ON for the entire day. After a lot of deliberations, I still find that I am unable to find an alternative to my perceptions posted in my last post. I find it worthwhile to post those factors that induce me to affirm these perceptions (many of which were also submitted to Raghu ji) so that readers can make a more informed decision for themselves.
Support in the Daily Chart
There are many APFs, which have there median lines and forks aligned close to the levels I mentioned yesterday. Along with these, the channel drawn using the TL 5815-6112 and its parallel from 5548 also has its LTL near the support level. The longer term APF on the daily chart (in red) and the broader channel, in which I expect the move to take place, (in black) are shown in the chart below:
Support and Resistances in the Intraday Chart
In the intraday chart, again the APFs are aligning themselves beautifully to indicate the halt zones. Have a look at the chart below. The readers may find it quite cluttered up but kindly bear with me as I want to show the confluence zones of the possible APFs. The readers may match the text of a particular color on the chart with the APFs drawn with corresponding color. Notice the purple UTL, blue median and red UTL near 5900. Also notice the green LTL and purple median near 5830 (which also corresponds to the support of the previous chart). Last but not the least, notice the green median, which lies near 5980 and is the target of the WWs I posted yesterday.
Support and Resistances Provided by Three H&S patterns
The chart below shows three thick lines in red green and blue. All are necklines of potential H&Ss. Each neckline is also associated with two TLs drawn as thin lines of same color. These TLs are basically drawn from points defining the neck to the top of the shoulders on the opposite side. They all provide support and resistance and we need to watch the Blue neckline for the time being.
Now, if we were to follow these indications, what happens to EW? I would think of two options.
First, is to ignore the tick violating the previous high, take the closing value of the candle and continue with the assumption that an ED is over. Consequences? A rise is due, which may or may not stall near 5980.
Second, is to take the move from 5879 as an ET, in which case, its 5th fractal has to go beyond 5971 and C downwards has to follow. This C can do 145 points and get over or it may continue till 377 points.
What will distinguish these two options? As far as I can see, it can be resolved only if Nifty goes past 6112, in which case, Nifty indeed did an ED. Otherwise, consequences in both the counts would not be any different.
While we wait for the moves to tell us what is happening right now, I will still find the WW target of 5980 with a SL below baseline of the WW a very lucrative option.
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