Nifty : A Post Triggered by Raghu ji

 Today, my perceptions posted in my last post Nifty : The possibilities and the Trade Setup for 25 Feb 2013 had some very valid and crucial observations from Raghu ji, who writes his interpretations on Nifty at Jackpot Trades and whose precise one liners induced me into learning the TA with a little more sincerity.

I did submit my own observations to him to justify my perceptions, but, they made me keep my thinking hat ON for the entire day.  After a lot of deliberations, I still find that I am unable to find an alternative to my perceptions posted in my last post.  I find it worthwhile to post those factors that induce me to affirm these perceptions (many of which were also submitted to Raghu ji) so that readers can make a more informed decision for themselves.

Support in the Daily Chart

There are many APFs, which have there median lines and forks aligned close to the levels I mentioned yesterday.   Along with these, the channel drawn using the TL 5815-6112 and its parallel from 5548 also has its LTL near the support level.  The longer term APF on the daily chart (in red) and the broader channel, in which I expect the move to take place,  (in black) are shown in the chart below:


 

Support and Resistances in the Intraday Chart

In the intraday chart, again the APFs are aligning themselves beautifully to indicate the halt zones.  Have a look at the chart below.  The readers may find it quite cluttered up but kindly bear with me as I want to show the confluence zones of the possible APFs.  The readers may match the text of a particular color on the chart with the APFs drawn with corresponding color.  Notice the purple UTL, blue median and red UTL near 5900.  Also notice the green LTL and purple median near 5830 (which also corresponds to the support of the previous chart).   Last but not the least, notice the green median, which lies near 5980 and is the target of the WWs I posted yesterday.










Support and Resistances Provided by Three H&S patterns 

The chart below shows three thick lines in red green and blue.  All are necklines of potential  H&Ss.  Each neckline is also associated with two TLs drawn as thin lines of same color.  These TLs are basically drawn from points defining the neck to the top of the shoulders on the opposite side.  They all provide support and resistance and we need to watch the Blue neckline for the time being.


 
 Now, if we were to follow these indications, what happens to EW?  I would think of two options.

First, is to ignore the tick violating the previous high, take the closing value of the candle and continue with the assumption that an ED is over.  Consequences?  A rise is due, which may or may not stall near 5980.

Second, is to take the move from 5879 as an ET, in which case, its 5th fractal has to go beyond 5971 and C downwards has to follow.  This C can do 145 points and get over or it may continue till 377 points.

What will distinguish these two options?  As far as I can see, it can be resolved only if Nifty goes past 6112, in which case, Nifty indeed did an ED. Otherwise, consequences in both the counts would not be any different.

While we wait for the moves to tell us what is happening right now, I will still find the WW target of 5980 with a SL below baseline of the WW a very lucrative option.

Nifty : The possibilities and the Trade Setup for 25 Feb 2013

The fall from 6112 in Nifty has been pretty foxy for me.  Smells of a 4th wave and possibility of this being C4 is pretty strong.  While I was busy elsewhere for most of the last week, my positions as well as Nifty have swung from one end to the other, of what I presume to be C as an ED.  Before I put across my views on the EW possibilities, let me see if there is anything else that can define a trade setup better.

Wolf Waves in Nifty

There are two WWs in the Nifty intraday charts, which are shown in red and blue colors in the chart below.  Both are targeting similar levels of approx 5980.  The target leg of wolfe is known to have push overs beyond the target line, which may happen in this case also.  If that happens, another WW with a higher target may emerge.  We will talk about that later.

 

EW Possibilities

I see two possibilities for the fall from 6112 as far as EW is concerned.  The chart placed below shows these two possibilities in red and blue color.  The red one is to be accepted with a pinch of salt and the blue one looks absolutely fine so far.  However, what needs to be kept in mind is that the blue count must (and I repeat must) be limited to 5828 and a tick below 5828 will make the blue counts invalid.

Fractals of Blue Corrective

W	6112	-	5987	=	125
X	5987	-	6038	=	-51		-40.8
Y	6038	-	5836	=	202		161.6

Fractals of W:

A	6112	-	6042	=	70
B	6042	-	6072	=	-30		-42.8571
C	6072	-	5987	=	85		121.4286

Fractals of Y:

A	6038	-	5946	=	92
B	5946	-	5978	=	-32		-34.7826
C	5978	-	5836	=	142		154.3478

This count would become invalid at 5828.

Fractals of Red Corrective

A	6112	-	5946	=	166
B	5946	-	5978	=	-32		-19.2771
C	5978	-	5836	=	142		85.54217

This possibility has further scope to go down.  However, The APFs, EWO and RSI indicate that this fall may almost be over.


The Trade Setup

Long Nifty or CEs of Nifty as close to 5830 or above the blue LTL with SL of 5828 (or below brown LTL) for a target of 5980.  

Those on short side, should keep a SL just above the UTL of the blue WW in the first chart of this post.

Nifty : View on 13-02-2013 similar to 08-02-2013

The Wolfe in Black met its target beautifully as was expected in my last post on Friday.  Now the red wolfe is in action and would be alive above the red LTL.

EW wise it appears to be in 4th of A.   The expected route could be as shown with the red arrows.

Trade setup-  Long Nifty as close to 5920 as possible, with a SL at 5879 for a target of 6090.