I wrote about my appreciation of Nifty in my last post Nifty Trade Setup 21 August 2014 : The most crucial phase for both bulls and bears. It is clear now that none of the possibilities mentioned in the last post hold any merit and a re-orientation of EW needs to be done.
The perceptions upto weekly still hold good, but, the thoughts on daily chart needs to be re-organised. With breach of 7959, the possibility of an ED from 7118 becomes invalid and leaves few other possibilities in its wake for ellioticians to ponder upon.
If we consider the move from 4531 as shown in my previous post, the third wave is already extended. However, within the 3rd wave starting from 5118, the moves have become complicated for an impulse. My endeavour will be to resolve this segment to acceptable possibilities.
As impulse, with the possibility of 3rd extension, the move from 5118 seems to be shaping up as below:
| 1 | : | 5118 | - | 6415 | = | 1297 | |||
| 2 | : | 6415 | - | 5933.3 | = | -481.7 | ( | -37.14 | ) |
| 3 | : | 5933.3 | - | 7968 | = | 2034.7 | ( | 156.88 | ) of 1 and |
At this juncture, not much clarity is shown by the moves from 5933, especially
when all the ticks are accounted for. However, if closing values are
taken and help of other indicators are used to identify the fractals, a
possibility emerges. For which, EW counts for the fractals of move from 5933 may be developing as below:
| i | : | 5933.3 | - | 6869.85 | = | 936.55 | |||
| ii | : | 6869.85 | - | 6638.55 | = | -231.3 | ( | -24.697 | ) |
| iii | : | 6638.55 | - | 7809 | = | 1170.5 | ( | 124.9746 | ) |
| iv | : | 7809 | - | 7422 | = | -387 | ( | -33.0642 | ) |
| v | : | 7422 | - | 8001 | = | 579 | ( | 61.82265 | ) of i ** |
Where v th has to push between 8001 and 8145 to keep iii rd extended and i st unextended. It should also go past 8031 to get 3 rd wave of higher degree extended. The wave itself may be developing as an ED as below:
| 1 | : | 7422 | - | 7841 | = | 419 | |||
| 2 | : | 7841 | - | 7540 | = | -301 | ( | -71.8377 | ) |
| 3 | : | 7540 | - | 7968 | = | 428 | ( | 102.148 | ) |
| 4 | : | 7968 | - | 7658 | = | -310 | ( | -72.38 | )** |
| 5 | : | 7658 | - | 8095 | = | 437 | ( | 102.1028 | )** |
The point to remember here is that the 5th must go beyond 8001 but cannot go beyond 8145 because if it does, the higher degree presumptions will become invalid. It also needs to go beyond 8031 to make the 3rd wave at a higher degree extended. The whole setup are depicted on the chart below:
Now let us see how the fall from 7968 has developed so far.
Simply put, the fractals of the fall may have developed to satisfy this
A : 7968.25 - 7874.05 = -94.2
B : 7874.05 - 7915.45 = 41.4 ( -43.94904459 )
C : 7915.45 - 7862.7 = -52.75 ( 55.99787686 )
T1: 7857.2344 , T2: 7821.25 , T3: 7763.0344
It may still continue in this manner, as long as 7915.45 is not taken. However, if we look at it a little differently, we may see fractals of B developing in the following manner. (If 7915.45 is taken out, the possibility will continue to exist as long as 7968.25 is not taken out. I am banking on T3 of B, which is the most probable target of an expanded.)
a : 7874.05 - 7915.45 = 41.4
b : 7915.45 - 7862.7 = -52.75 ( -127.4154589 )
c : 7862.7 - 7929 = 66.3 ( 160.1449275 )**
T1: 7888.2852, T2: 7904.1, T3: 7929.6852, T4: 7971.0852
With 7929 in focus for end of B, the possibility for C is as below.
A : 7968.25 - 7874.05 = -94.2
B : 7874.05 - 7929 = 54.95 ( -58.33333333 )**
C : 7929 - 7862.7 = -66.3 ( 70.38216561 )**
T1: 7870.7844 , T2: 7834.8 , T3: 7776.5844
A breach below T3 will prompt me to change to counting it as an impulse and target 7730 for an A wave of the corrective. Till then, 7780 remains my target.
The chart depicting the setup is as below:
