Last month I wrote on possibilities that were emerging in Nifty at Nifty Trade Setup 21 August 2014 : The most crucial phase for both bulls and bears and Nifty on 27 August 2014: The highs may still be counting but its time to look lower and had mentioned certain levels to resolve certain possibilities. At this juncture, most of the possibilities that were mentioned has been resolved and possibly few more have emerged. Let us see what they were and whether they remain valid.
The possibilities that were held firm till last month are:
Expanded wave from 6357 made in January 2008....invalid now.
Expanded wave from 7841 made last month....invalid now.
ED from 7118 made on 30 May 2014......invalid now.
With the expanded possibilities invalidated, it will be safe to assume that Nifty is still in the initial segment of a long long journey. Since 2008 the lowest point touched was 2252 and assumption of an impulse having commenced from this point would not be totally misplaced. However, a confirmation would still be required at a future date as and when it comes. Let us see the impulsive compulsions of this move:
What is visible here is that (III) will become extended only above 11144 at 161.8 %. But it should also be kept in mind that (III) has potential to scale upto 21900 at 425% if it decides to do so. Since the move is presently in (III) let us see what is happening there.
Here III has already become extended, however, it must be remembered that it has potential to go upto 12334 at 425%. Now let us see what is happening within III.
Here again 3 has already become extended, however, it must be remembered that 3 has potential to go upto 11445 at 425%. Now let us see what is happening within III.
Here it is worth while to mention that there is another alternate which validates the move from 6357 (Jan 08) to 5116 (Aug 13) as a CT. Even if this be the case, the move from 5118 should resolve as an impulse as it progresses. At this juncture 5118 onwards is where the concentration should lie for most ellioticians as the previous move are yet to go a long way for any meaningful resolution. Now let us see the other possibilities from 5118.
Alternate 1
Here 3 is extended with respect to 5 till 8145 and a tick at 8146 will make this alternate invalid.
Alternate 2
Here also 3 is extended with respect to 5 till 8263 and a tick at 8264 will make this alternate invalid. 4 is labelled at 7540 is this case.
In these two alternates the 3 has been considered completed at 7809 (I am not convinced on this). So let us see if the 5th in each case shows up as an ED or an impulse. This is the best I could get to.
Alternate 1
This possibility has gone beyond the limits for any possibility of an extension of iii with respect to vth. Hence vth itself will need to get extended for which it must cross 8540.
Alternate 2
In this, iii may or may not be complete. iv has scope to go down till 7969. v must cross 173 points and must not cross 8263. Because if it does, higher degree count will become invalid.
Most Acceptable Count
iii here may still be continuing and would become extended above 8154. It also has scope to go till 10618 at 425%.
Here (iii) must go beyond 9435 to become extended. Will it go? Time shall tell. There is an alternate for this which can finish the move below 8290 and may have already finished, but I am not really convinced on this one.
Trade Setup
For Bulls: Go long near 8030, SL 7967 Target 8555.
For Bears: Go short near 8140 SL 8155 Target 8030/7969/ 7862/....7700/7300
PS. I will try and include charts in this post at a later stage. But members may consider drawing their own charts for these counts.
The possibilities that were held firm till last month are:
Expanded wave from 6357 made in January 2008....invalid now.
Expanded wave from 7841 made last month....invalid now.
ED from 7118 made on 30 May 2014......invalid now.
With the expanded possibilities invalidated, it will be safe to assume that Nifty is still in the initial segment of a long long journey. Since 2008 the lowest point touched was 2252 and assumption of an impulse having commenced from this point would not be totally misplaced. However, a confirmation would still be required at a future date as and when it comes. Let us see the impulsive compulsions of this move:
| (I) | : | 2252 | - | 6339 | = | 4087 | 100 | ||
| (II) | : | 6339 | - | 4531 | = | -1808 | ( | -44.2378 | ) |
| (III) | : | 4531 | - | 11144 | = | 6613 | ( | 161.8057 | )* |
What is visible here is that (III) will become extended only above 11144 at 161.8 %. But it should also be kept in mind that (III) has potential to scale upto 21900 at 425% if it decides to do so. Since the move is presently in (III) let us see what is happening there.
| I | : | 4531 | - | 6229 | = | 1698 | |||
| II | : | 6229 | - | 5118 | = | -1111 | ( | -65.4299 | ) |
| III | : | 5118 | - | 8142 | = | 3024 | ( | 178.0919 | )* |
Here III has already become extended, however, it must be remembered that it has potential to go upto 12334 at 425%. Now let us see what is happening within III.
| 1 | : | 5118 | - | 6415 | = | 1297 | |||
| 2 | : | 6415 | - | 5933.3 | = | -481.7 | ( | -37.1396 | ) |
| 3 | : | 5933.3 | - | 8142 | = | 2208.7 | ( | 170.293 | ) * |
Here again 3 has already become extended, however, it must be remembered that 3 has potential to go upto 11445 at 425%. Now let us see what is happening within III.
Here it is worth while to mention that there is another alternate which validates the move from 6357 (Jan 08) to 5116 (Aug 13) as a CT. Even if this be the case, the move from 5118 should resolve as an impulse as it progresses. At this juncture 5118 onwards is where the concentration should lie for most ellioticians as the previous move are yet to go a long way for any meaningful resolution. Now let us see the other possibilities from 5118.
Alternate 1
| 1 | : | 5933.3 | - | 6869.85 | = | 936.55 | ||||
| 2 | : | 6869.85 | - | 6638.55 | = | -231.3 | ( | -24.697 | ) | |
| 3 | : | 6638.55 | - | 7809 | = | 1170.5 | ( | 124.9746 | ) | |
| 4 | : | 7809 | - | 7422 | = | -387 | ( | -33.0642 | ) | |
| 5 | : | 7422 | - | 8145 | = | 723 | ( |
|
) Max |
Here 3 is extended with respect to 5 till 8145 and a tick at 8146 will make this alternate invalid.
Alternate 2
| 1 | : | 5933.3 | - | 6869.85 | = | 936.55 | |||
| 2 | : | 6869.85 | - | 6638.55 | = | -231.3 | ( | -24.697 | ) |
| 3 | : | 6638.55 | - | 7809 | = | 1170.5 | ( | 124.9746 | ) |
| 4 | : | 7809 | - | 7540 | = | -269 | ( | -22.9826 | ) |
| 5 | : | 7540 | - | 8263 | = | 723 | ( | 161.888 | ) Max |
Here also 3 is extended with respect to 5 till 8263 and a tick at 8264 will make this alternate invalid. 4 is labelled at 7540 is this case.
In these two alternates the 3 has been considered completed at 7809 (I am not convinced on this). So let us see if the 5th in each case shows up as an ED or an impulse. This is the best I could get to.
Alternate 1
| i | : | 7422 | - | 7841 | = | 419 | |||
| ii | : | 7841 | - | 7540 | = | -301 | ( | -71.8377 | ) |
| iii | : | 7540 | - | 7968 | = | 428 | ( | 102.148 | ) |
| iv | : | 7968 | - | 7862 | = | -106 | ( | -24.7664 | ) |
| v | : | 7862 | - | 8141 | = | 279 | ( | 65.18692 | ) |
This possibility has gone beyond the limits for any possibility of an extension of iii with respect to vth. Hence vth itself will need to get extended for which it must cross 8540.
Alternate 2
|
In this, iii may or may not be complete. iv has scope to go down till 7969. v must cross 173 points and must not cross 8263. Because if it does, higher degree count will become invalid.
Most Acceptable Count
| i | : | 5933.3 | - | 6869.85 | = | 936.55 | |||
| ii | : | 6869.85 | - | 6638.55 | = | -231.3 | ( | -24.697 | ) |
| iii | : | 6638.55 | - | 8141 | = | 1502.5 | ( | 160.4239 | )* |
iii here may still be continuing and would become extended above 8154. It also has scope to go till 10618 at 425%.
| (i) | : | 6638 | - | 7809 | = | 1171 | LD | ||
| (ii) | : | 7809 | - | 7540 | = | -269 | ( | -22.9718 | ) |
| (iii) | : | 7540 | - | 8142 | = | 602 | ( | 51.40905 | ) |
Here (iii) must go beyond 9435 to become extended. Will it go? Time shall tell. There is an alternate for this which can finish the move below 8290 and may have already finished, but I am not really convinced on this one.
Trade Setup
For Bulls: Go long near 8030, SL 7967 Target 8555.
For Bears: Go short near 8140 SL 8155 Target 8030/7969/ 7862/....7700/7300
PS. I will try and include charts in this post at a later stage. But members may consider drawing their own charts for these counts.
