Nifty as Perceived on Teachers' Day

I am not going to write much.  Following the fall as 4th of the rise.  Fall seems to have completed or is very near to its completion.

There are few essential WWs as shown on this chart. 5th of all are done.  target leg may commence any time.  Baselines must be kept in sight.

The EW as perceived is as shown on the chart below:

Based on these the likely moves that may ensue are as below:

Fresh Perceptions on Nifty

Tight on time and hence would depend on the images to tell the story.  Here they are:-

Daily

Weekly

Nifty for 17 - 19 Jun 2015

Nifty is at crucial juncture now.  The possibility increases for it to test 8330/8380 by 19 Jun 2015.  The broader picture, as perceived, is in the chart below:


















The chart show 3 WWs.  2 of these are complete and third is in the making.  The completed WWs are shown in Black and Blue.  The incomplete potential WW is shown in pink.  The chart is self explanatory.

Perceived path, based on the WWs, is shown in thick blue line.

Next Three Days of Nifty

This is posted at another blog but has relevance to this blog also and hence the reproduction of its extract for the readership here.

 Nifty seems to have gone into an ED from 8463 and has completed first two fractals of this ED. If this perception is correct, then Nifty is unlikely to cross 8463 till the ED gets completed.

There is a WW developing and the current fall is shaping the last leg of the pattern.  If it indeed is developing as a WW, then it must go below 8160 roughly and 10 points of error on both side may be kept in mind for inaccuracies in my drawing.  This apart, the last leg by itself may get completed at 8140 or so.  As long as this leg gets below 8170, any number would be fine.

In one of my previous posts "Finale 15 Apr 2015", I had mentioned low days as 20, 23 and 25.  While I regret the mention of 25(being a Saturday) instead of 27, what I intend to bring out is the possibilities that may emerge within this framework.  If the intent of Nifty is to indeed go towards 8140, then it may dip to 8230-8220 on 23 without breaching 8463, then subsequently it would come to 8380/8432 roughly before dipping again in the morning hours of Monday, the 27th to make 8140.

It may also happen that the entire setup I have narrated here turns into rubbish at the opening bell itself.  Indicator would be a breach of 8463.

Possibilities and WW : 20 April 2015

I will again be brief.  8570-8560 and 8525-8500 seem to be levels of significance for the time being.  On the higher side, 8640-8650 needs to be recaptured by bulls soon.  Mathematically, a close below 8565 should come to complete the pattern in the short term.  For indicating a significant change of trend to bullishness, a close above 8780 today would be essential.  The chart below shows a WW in red, which though seems to be headed for 8K, it may not be reached in a straight line and may follow the path shown in blue.  The chart also shows two APFs and some TLs of significance in green color.

Readers may also recollect that today is a day of low, which may come around 1430-1500 and may see Nifty dipping towards 8570/8525.  All the best.

08 Jan 2014 Elliot Wave

I am looking at an expanded from 8364 as b of the rise from 7961 as below:

A	:	7961	-	8364	=	403
B	:	8364	-	8066	=	-298	(	-73.9454	)
C	:	8066	-	8564	=	498	(	123.5732	)

T1:

8315.054

,  T2:

8469

,  T3:

8718.054

 
With Fractals of B as :

a	:	8364	-	8148	=	-216
b	:	8148	-	8445	=	297	(	-137.5	)
c	:	8445	-	8066	=	-379	(	175.463	)

T1:

8311.512

,  T2:

8229

,  T3:

8095.512

,  T4:

7879.512

Here T4 ofcourse has to remain above 7961.

Alternately, if the entire move from 7961-8445 was B of the fall, then targets for C will be : 

A	:	8627	-	7961	=	-666
B	:	7961	-	8445	=	484	(	-72.6727	)
C	:	8445	-	7895	=	-550	(	82.58258	)

T1:

8033.412

,  T2:

7779

,  T3:

7367.412

This also implies that if the move dips below 8033, it qualifies as a complete corrective.  Though 7779 would be desirable.

The other aspect to remember is that if this corrective is for 5933-8627, it has done the minimum required.  However, if it is correcting 5118-8627, then it must go below 7812. 

what do we do with this input?  If 7961 is breached, then possibly 7812 is likely to go.  Once that goes, 7722 could be taken as SL for an attempt to go long as close to it as possible.

Best of Luck.

What Now?

I have been writing on my appreciation of Nifty based on pure technical tools till now.  But now, we are at a juncture, where many other aspects need to be looked at to derive what could lie ahead.

Sentiments

Crude.

The sentiments are getting marred mainly because of the way Crude has fallen in the recent times.  I had a feeling that Brent will dip to 50 and now that it has done so, I see very little downside for the time being.  In fact, it may start rising for 80 or so now and remain in this range for next 12 months roughly.  If the dip in crude has affected the sentiments, things should improve from hereon.  In fact, I expect that Crude may close this week above 55 and leave a tail of 5 dollars to be measured in times ahead.

Gold.

Gold has done an impulse to the down and should now rise towards 1350-1450 $.  This may cause some drain in liquidity in stock markets world-wide.  How this rise rise shapes up will have a significant effect on the bourses all over.

USD/INR.

This one has been my fav for some time in identifying moves in Nifty, however, it has behaved strangely in past year vis a vis know patterns in relation to Nifty.  What I expect that USD/INR may now dip.  While the longish term target could be 54 or lower, the shorter term target could be 62/61.  Effect of this, if it happens, on Nifty should be positive.

Dow.

This one has been skywards for a long time and seems to still retain some energy to scale higher.  17650 and 17400 is the band that needs to be negotiated by either bulls or bears.  My take is that it is headed higher in near future.

While these perceptions are posted here, they are mainly for personal consumption and for some close friend as well.  No trades are advised based on these and those who do would be doing it at their own peril.

All the best.

Nifty 06 January 2015 : 8500 Could be a Possible Reversal Zone

 As I perceive, 3rd wave from 5933 may be over at 8627 and 4th is in progress.  Currently, 4.B.c is being measured and may land up at 8490-8500 after dipping between 8350-8330.  This, once done, will be followed by 4.C, which should not only go below 7961, but may also test 7723.  Here are the charts depicting my perceptions:

Nifty : Containment Zones based on Trend Lines

Nifty : EW on Daily Chart

Nifty : EW on Hourly Chart

Reliance Capital 05 Jan 2015: TL or Trend Lines

I had written a brief post at Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish and while this time also I am going to be brief, I will touch upon three essential aspects of TA for Reliance Capitals.  These three aspects are posted at:

Reliance Capital : EW Perspective
Reliance Capitals : Wolfe Waves
Reliance Capital : Trend Lines

One of them is the current post.

Reliance Capital 05 Jan 2015: WW or Wolfe Waves

I had written a brief post at Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish and while this time also I am going to be brief, I will touch upon three essential aspects of TA for Reliance Capitals.  These three aspects are posted at:

Reliance Capital : EW Perspective
Reliance Capitals : Wolfe Waves
Reliance Capital : Trend Lines

One of them is the current post.

Monthly

 

Weekly

 

Daily

 

Reliance Capital 05 Jan 2015: EW Perspective

I had written a brief post at Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish and while this time also I am going to be brief, I will touch upon three essential aspects of TA for Reliance Capitals.  These three aspects are posted at:

Reliance Capital : EW Perspective
Reliance Capitals : Wolfe Waves
Reliance Capital : Trend Lines

One of them is the current post.

EW Perspective : Monthly

 

EW Perspective : Weekly

 

EW Perspective : Daily