Nifty as Perceived on Teachers' Day

I am not going to write much.  Following the fall as 4th of the rise.  Fall seems to have completed or is very near to its completion.

There are few essential WWs as shown on this chart. 5th of all are done.  target leg may commence any time.  Baselines must be kept in sight.

The EW as perceived is as shown on the chart below:

Based on these the likely moves that may ensue are as below:

Fresh Perceptions on Nifty

Tight on time and hence would depend on the images to tell the story.  Here they are:-

Daily

Weekly

Nifty for 17 - 19 Jun 2015

Nifty is at crucial juncture now.  The possibility increases for it to test 8330/8380 by 19 Jun 2015.  The broader picture, as perceived, is in the chart below:


















The chart show 3 WWs.  2 of these are complete and third is in the making.  The completed WWs are shown in Black and Blue.  The incomplete potential WW is shown in pink.  The chart is self explanatory.

Perceived path, based on the WWs, is shown in thick blue line.

Next Three Days of Nifty

This is posted at another blog but has relevance to this blog also and hence the reproduction of its extract for the readership here.

 Nifty seems to have gone into an ED from 8463 and has completed first two fractals of this ED. If this perception is correct, then Nifty is unlikely to cross 8463 till the ED gets completed.

There is a WW developing and the current fall is shaping the last leg of the pattern.  If it indeed is developing as a WW, then it must go below 8160 roughly and 10 points of error on both side may be kept in mind for inaccuracies in my drawing.  This apart, the last leg by itself may get completed at 8140 or so.  As long as this leg gets below 8170, any number would be fine.

In one of my previous posts "Finale 15 Apr 2015", I had mentioned low days as 20, 23 and 25.  While I regret the mention of 25(being a Saturday) instead of 27, what I intend to bring out is the possibilities that may emerge within this framework.  If the intent of Nifty is to indeed go towards 8140, then it may dip to 8230-8220 on 23 without breaching 8463, then subsequently it would come to 8380/8432 roughly before dipping again in the morning hours of Monday, the 27th to make 8140.

It may also happen that the entire setup I have narrated here turns into rubbish at the opening bell itself.  Indicator would be a breach of 8463.

Possibilities and WW : 20 April 2015

I will again be brief.  8570-8560 and 8525-8500 seem to be levels of significance for the time being.  On the higher side, 8640-8650 needs to be recaptured by bulls soon.  Mathematically, a close below 8565 should come to complete the pattern in the short term.  For indicating a significant change of trend to bullishness, a close above 8780 today would be essential.  The chart below shows a WW in red, which though seems to be headed for 8K, it may not be reached in a straight line and may follow the path shown in blue.  The chart also shows two APFs and some TLs of significance in green color.

Readers may also recollect that today is a day of low, which may come around 1430-1500 and may see Nifty dipping towards 8570/8525.  All the best.

08 Jan 2014 Elliot Wave

I am looking at an expanded from 8364 as b of the rise from 7961 as below:

A	:	7961	-	8364	=	403
B	:	8364	-	8066	=	-298	(	-73.9454	)
C	:	8066	-	8564	=	498	(	123.5732	)

T1:

8315.054

,  T2:

8469

,  T3:

8718.054

 
With Fractals of B as :

a	:	8364	-	8148	=	-216
b	:	8148	-	8445	=	297	(	-137.5	)
c	:	8445	-	8066	=	-379	(	175.463	)

T1:

8311.512

,  T2:

8229

,  T3:

8095.512

,  T4:

7879.512

Here T4 ofcourse has to remain above 7961.

Alternately, if the entire move from 7961-8445 was B of the fall, then targets for C will be : 

A	:	8627	-	7961	=	-666
B	:	7961	-	8445	=	484	(	-72.6727	)
C	:	8445	-	7895	=	-550	(	82.58258	)

T1:

8033.412

,  T2:

7779

,  T3:

7367.412

This also implies that if the move dips below 8033, it qualifies as a complete corrective.  Though 7779 would be desirable.

The other aspect to remember is that if this corrective is for 5933-8627, it has done the minimum required.  However, if it is correcting 5118-8627, then it must go below 7812. 

what do we do with this input?  If 7961 is breached, then possibly 7812 is likely to go.  Once that goes, 7722 could be taken as SL for an attempt to go long as close to it as possible.

Best of Luck.

What Now?

I have been writing on my appreciation of Nifty based on pure technical tools till now.  But now, we are at a juncture, where many other aspects need to be looked at to derive what could lie ahead.

Sentiments

Crude.

The sentiments are getting marred mainly because of the way Crude has fallen in the recent times.  I had a feeling that Brent will dip to 50 and now that it has done so, I see very little downside for the time being.  In fact, it may start rising for 80 or so now and remain in this range for next 12 months roughly.  If the dip in crude has affected the sentiments, things should improve from hereon.  In fact, I expect that Crude may close this week above 55 and leave a tail of 5 dollars to be measured in times ahead.

Gold.

Gold has done an impulse to the down and should now rise towards 1350-1450 $.  This may cause some drain in liquidity in stock markets world-wide.  How this rise rise shapes up will have a significant effect on the bourses all over.

USD/INR.

This one has been my fav for some time in identifying moves in Nifty, however, it has behaved strangely in past year vis a vis know patterns in relation to Nifty.  What I expect that USD/INR may now dip.  While the longish term target could be 54 or lower, the shorter term target could be 62/61.  Effect of this, if it happens, on Nifty should be positive.

Dow.

This one has been skywards for a long time and seems to still retain some energy to scale higher.  17650 and 17400 is the band that needs to be negotiated by either bulls or bears.  My take is that it is headed higher in near future.

While these perceptions are posted here, they are mainly for personal consumption and for some close friend as well.  No trades are advised based on these and those who do would be doing it at their own peril.

All the best.

Nifty 06 January 2015 : 8500 Could be a Possible Reversal Zone

 As I perceive, 3rd wave from 5933 may be over at 8627 and 4th is in progress.  Currently, 4.B.c is being measured and may land up at 8490-8500 after dipping between 8350-8330.  This, once done, will be followed by 4.C, which should not only go below 7961, but may also test 7723.  Here are the charts depicting my perceptions:

Nifty : Containment Zones based on Trend Lines

Nifty : EW on Daily Chart

Nifty : EW on Hourly Chart

Reliance Capital 05 Jan 2015: TL or Trend Lines

I had written a brief post at Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish and while this time also I am going to be brief, I will touch upon three essential aspects of TA for Reliance Capitals.  These three aspects are posted at:

Reliance Capital : EW Perspective
Reliance Capitals : Wolfe Waves
Reliance Capital : Trend Lines

One of them is the current post.

Reliance Capital 05 Jan 2015: WW or Wolfe Waves

I had written a brief post at Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish and while this time also I am going to be brief, I will touch upon three essential aspects of TA for Reliance Capitals.  These three aspects are posted at:

Reliance Capital : EW Perspective
Reliance Capitals : Wolfe Waves
Reliance Capital : Trend Lines

One of them is the current post.

Monthly

 

Weekly

 

Daily

 

Reliance Capital 05 Jan 2015: EW Perspective

I had written a brief post at Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish and while this time also I am going to be brief, I will touch upon three essential aspects of TA for Reliance Capitals.  These three aspects are posted at:

Reliance Capital : EW Perspective
Reliance Capitals : Wolfe Waves
Reliance Capital : Trend Lines

One of them is the current post.

EW Perspective : Monthly

 

EW Perspective : Weekly

 

EW Perspective : Daily

   

Nifty 29 Dec 2015 : Critical Moves to Follow

8627 could be end of a large degree wave, the corrective may test 7723.  If 7723 is held bears may be mauled by carnivorous bulls.



One should also keep an eye on the WWs that are shown in the chart below. Both black Wolves are inactive at present and will be active below their respective baselines.  The red WW is still in the making and its 4 should end in the red oval without violating the red LTL.  But as I see it, the WWs may wait for a while but need to be monitored closely.





Trade as suited to each one of you.

NIfty 22 December 2014 : Can go either way.

The setup for tomorrow:

 

Possibilities

My fav : Can swing between 7900 and 8250.

 

Other bearish possibilities : Can take Nifty below 7500.

Possibility of a lateral 4th wave as CT :  Can keep moving between 7960 and 8500.

 

 Not to forget the aspirations of a new high, which I am not charting here.

Trade bearish, with SL of 8350 initially for a target of 7925/7800/7500
Trade bullish, with SL of 7960, at 8080 for a target of 8450/8550/8700+.......9200

I am expecting a bearish tone till mid Jan, then a rise till end feb to mid Mar and then a substantial drop.
God knows if a Harshad Mehta or Ketan Parekh will surface by then.  SEBI has already barred 260 entities from markets due suspicions of money laundering.

All the best.

Reliance Capital : Looks Bearish

Reliance Capital looks to be in a bearish setup.  The channel has resistance around 495-498.  If held, it may rush to 435 or lower..  Here is the chart...

Update 02012015

Trendline Containment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

APF Possibilities

 

DLF 10 November 2014 : What could cause a 61.15 fall.

DLF has been in news for a long time, courtesy Mr Robert Vadera, the famous or rather infamous son in law, and his associates.  I have written about DLF in past.  But the situation that is prevalent, prompted a review.

Most of the recent write ups on DLF are giving bullish sentiments.  Some saying 140 and some 150+ as their Target.  IMHP,  DLF is almost at the end of its current rise.  This correction has already entered the gap that was created on the day of recent fall and I find it difficult for DLF to stretch much beyond 138.

On Friday, I missed the news and shorted it at around 134 and kept wondering about the crisp rise that continued to sustain the entire day.

That brought me back to the charts and my perception is that it is ripe for another big dip of 61.15 or more from wherever it starts. The nearest low could be seen very close to the expiry day. Since 100.15 was the last low,  a short around 137 for a target below 100 (and when that happens, EW will mandate 61.2 for the fall)  with a SL of 140.25  may be attempted.

What would cause such fall is anybody's guess.  But as I have mentioned earlier, that TA at times tends to create news that no one expects.  Seems Vadera is in for a big run for his money.  Let us keep our fingers crossed.


PS.  I would love to have the views of the readers here on the central question.  Which is....What could cause a fall of 61.2 points in DLF in next 13.days?

Nifty 03 November 2014 : A long way to go

My last detailed post on Nifty was posted at Nifty 04 September 2014 : Last week did clear some clouds but what next?.  Subsequent moves have shaped up more or less in that manner.  On last trading day, Nifty breached an important level at 8264, which now mandates Nifty to go beyond 8540.  While that condition is set, how much beyond could Nifty scale in this rise?

The limits are set by two counts:

Firstly:   The counts of ED restrict the fifth to 1.618 times the third in the following manner, which limits the move to 8758.

i	:	7422	-	7841	=	419
ii	:	7841	-	7540	=	-301	(	-71.8377	)
iii	:	7540	-	8180	=	640	(	152.7446	)
iv	:	8180	-	7723	=	-457	(	-71.4063	)
v	:	7723	-	8758	=	1035	(	161.7188	)

Secondly:   The counts of last move may shape as a 3 wave form, or may develop into an ED themselves.  I am trying to fix the move as 3 wave while keeping the ED as alternate.

The 3 wave form of the rise, at its best, could shape up as

A  :  7723  - 8540   = 817 B  :  8540  - 7930   = -610   ( -74.6634 ) C  :  7930  - 8757   = 827   ( 101.224 )

Needless to say that every fractal here is shown as a projection.  The actual values as well as their respective forms may differ.

The current rise from 7723 seems to be shaping up as an impulse and may at its largest fractal show us following values:

1	:	7723.95	-	7933.55	=	209.6
2	:	7933.55	-	7874	=	-59.55	(	28.41126	)
3	:	7874	-	8450	=	576	(	274.8092	)
4	:	8450	-	8310	=	-140	(	24.30556	)
5	:	8310	-	8540	=	230	(	109.7328	)

My take is that the correctives may not dip below 8250 now till completion of A.

Since this rise may be shaping up as the final fractal for the move from either 5118 or 5933, the subsequent corrective should come down by 600-700 points at the minimum.

I would prefer to shift my sight to Jun 2015.  A covering position of 8900 or 9000 CEs of Jun 2015 may be taken now.  A counter position in same or next month expiry (the month in which position is being taken or next month) via 8500 PEs or 8400 PEs as well as 7900 PEs of Jun 2015 expiry may be taken when Nifty reaches above 8540.  If Nifty dips to 7930, the counter positions of the closer month expiry should be closed and CEs of 8100/8200 should be initiated.

This may be repeated again when Nifty reaches 8700+ with June positions intact.

God bless.

HAPPY DEEPAWALI

BEST WISHES AND A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS DEEPAWALI TO ALL READERS.

MAY GODDESS LAKSHMI SHOWER HER BLESSINGS UPON ALL OF YOU.

GOD BLESS.

Getting Away

This Saturday, I am going on vacations, which should help me get away from the charts for couple of weeks.  I will try and track the Nifty but it is unlikely that I would be able to do any worthwhile technical analysis during this time.

A much awaited break for me.  Hope to get back after 21 November this year.

Best of Luck to the readers.

Nifty Breached 7745 but Wolves Must be Kept Track of

In my last post I had talked about couple of Wolfe Waves developing in Nifty.  Today's fall has completed the 5th wave of the incomplete wave.

While the lack of divergence may indicate further fall,  the things may turn around if Nifty starts closing above the baseline.  Things do look gloomy for now but  a change may not take much efforts from bulls to kick start these wolves.

SUGGEST KEEP AN EYE ON THEM..

Nifty on 13 October 2014 : Wolfe Waves - One on Target, Second yet to Launch

The Wolfe Waves aka WWs are depicted in blue and black in the chart below :

Indications are that Nifty may head for 8100+ very rapidly.  Possible paths are depicted on the chart.

7740 remains the SL for longs.  Shorts however must keep SL at 7975 or 8035 as per own risk appetite.