Nifty on 24 June 2013 will be at a Crucial Zone.....Caution for Bears.

Again, I am finding myself short of time to write much.  The two charts below will narrate the story.

Long Term Chart

 

Short Term Chart

 

 

DLF on 16 June 2013 - Reaching a Possible Reversal Zone

I had written about my perceptions on DLF in my post DLF: In a Corrective on 06 March 2013 with an update on 27 March 2013. The subsequent price action has developed as perceived in one of the possibilities.  Now since DLF is approaching the limits of this move, a fresh looks is necessary.  The chart below gives a comparison of the chart posted on 27 March 2013 with the chart of 14 June 2013.

 As evident from the chart above, the price action is contained in the red APF and is reaching the LTL of green APF (which is drawn in anticipation), which should provide the support, if DLF had to rise from here.  With last low at 169.75, it looks fairly lucrative for initiating a long position near the green LT (roughly 180) with a SL below the last low.

The chart below is a weekly chart and shows a broader outlook of the stock.  To me, critical areas are the cross of two blue TLs and the price action has gone below it.  the other critical area is the lower amber zone followed by the red zone.   While I expect the amber zone to be tested with a reclaim above blue TLs, I do not expect the red zone to be breached.  If red zone is held, the targets could be as shown with the hollow green arrows or more.  If the red zone is breached, the next support zone is 162 - 160 and may be further down to make a new low below 124.  The likely path is shown with pink lines.  Not to forget that the lower thick black TL is likely to be ultimate support near these levels and as long as it is intact, the bulls will have a decent opportunity for a rise, which may go to as much as 520+, but a realistic target of 290 should suffice for the time being.

EW wise, an alternate count indicates that the current fall may be restricted till 176.65.  Below this, 169.75 and 162 are the support levels that may be of importance.

Readers may choose their strategies accordingly.  Remember to keep the SLs tight.

Nifty 27 March 2013 : A Bullish Wolfe and a H&S.

Nifty charts show presence of a Head and shoulders pattern as well as a bullish Wolfe Wave. 

The H & S, which would target 5200, is shown in the chart below.

 The Wolfe Wave (WW), which targets above 6020, is shown on the charts below:

 

 Readers may choose their pick with strict SLs.  My bias is towards WW,  for which, I will have a mental SL of 5545 for the time being.

Nifty : Longer Term Perceptions

I am posting this chart for which I have many things to write.  I will do the writing part later.....Here is the chart..

Nifty 16 March 2013: Picture Gets Clearer

The see-saw in Nifty is likely to continue till March 2013 expiry and the moves are going to be oriented around 5850. The chart below endeavors to depict the path Nifty is likely to follow in the coming fortnight. There is an APF drawn in Red color (and believe me there can be many more drawn) and as I perceive the moves of Nifty  is going to be defined by this APF for some time with support from blue and green channels.

There are three WWs forming in Nifty and I expect them to compliment each other while they evolve their right shape.  I have already talked about two larger ones in my post Nifty 11 March 2013 : Two Potential Wolfe Waves and for the third to complete, Nifty must go below 5790.   

As per EW, as counted in isolation from 6112,  the fall to 5664 could be either a 3 wave or 5 wave ( and I am inclined to see it as a 3 wave form).  Inference would be that either the corrective got over at 5664 or only the A of the corrective is done.  I am taking it as A because EWO says so.  Hence B should do a minimum of 90% of A, which will take Nifty beyond 6067.  B.a again looks a clear 5 wave form to me and hence  I expect another rise, which is in line with the expectation for B.  However B.b is presently doing its own (c) (I expect (b) to be over already and (c) already started but the confirmation will come later).  Now if the fall from 5945 is B.b.(c) then it either show a 5 wave form either as an Impulse or an ED.  I am inclined for the former and expect it to complete between 5760-5720 by Monday close.  B.c and C will follow as 5 wave forms as shown on the chart.

EWO wise, at (c) it should go below (a) easily but when it rises for levels beyond 5972 it is bound to show negative divergence in hourly chart and indicate completion of B and indicate a shorting opportunity.

Trade Setup



For Bears : Good shorting opportunities would be available near or above 6070 only with SL of 6113 and target of 5650 or lower.

For Bulls : Go long between 5760 and 5705 with a SL of 5660 for a target of 6067.  Those inclined to hedge, may take 5700 options when the market opens without a gap down on Monday.