Nifty : Technical View on 08 February 2013

Yesterday, in my post Nifty : Perception as on 07 February 2013 , I perceived that Nifty could be headed for 5880, which was almost achieved today.

The APFs shown in the chart below, also suggest that 5880 may be a good support.

It appears that the black and green APFs alongwith blue will provide support, which will push Nifty atleast upto purple APF.  Needless to say that  red, blue and black APFs will cause resistance during the rise.   I am expecting another ZZ to the up  and target is very very high.  Here it is....

T1 = Upper purple
T2 = Upper Blue  (most preferred)
T3 = Upper Black

All these, as long as lower black is held by bulls.  Else, lower ones will be visible.

The EW counts for the fall remain as posted yesterday.

Nifty : Perception as on 07 February 2013

Yesterday's micro wolfe met its target but again the bigger move continued to remain downwards.   Nifty is continuing to maintain in a downward channel and has made new low today but positive divergence continues to exist.

A look at the broader picture, made me aware that while I was tracking bullish wolves, I totally missed the bearish one, which targets 5918 or so  and has almost met its target today.

While the black wolfe may target 5880, the other two should be kept in sight as the end of this downmove is imminent.

Let us now see, how are the APFs shaping up:

Except for the black APF, rest of the APF suggest that the downmove may continue.   The lower median line of the black APF may be key for confirming a reversal.

Yesterday, I had shown two counts for a corrective and given count for one of the them.  The choice proved to be wrong and the move may be shaping up as per the blue counts as given in the chart yesterday.   The counts as such may be like this...

W	6112	-	5987	=	125
X	5987	-	6038	=	-51		-40.8
Y	6038	-	5880	=	158		126.4	(Projected)

Fractals of W:
A	6112	-	6042	=	70
B	6042	-	6072	=	-30		-42.8571
C	6072	-	5987	=	85		121.4286

Fractals of Y:
A	6038	-	5946	=	92
B	5946	-	5991	=	-45		-48.913
C	5991	-	5880	=	111		120.6522	(Projected)

T1

5899

T2

5841.96

T3

5933.96

Nifty: an LD, a Wolfe or a DZZ?

The expectations of yesterday's post fructified as expected in the morning, however, subsequent moves stretched beyond expectations.  I continue to believe that the move from 5990 downwards was a corrective, despite the fact that nothing seems to indicate towards a corrective.   While a casual look suggests that the move could be an LD, I am grossly influenced by emergence of wolfe wave patterns in various time frames and some other indicators, which suggest that the fall may already be over or may be left with a couple of points more.  Today another wolfe wave emerged, which targets 5975, and augments the wolves that are targeting 6040 and 6100.   This wolfe wave is depicted in red in the chart below.

The most acceptable counts for a corrective move for the fall today is depicted in Black and an alternate, which leaves some more room for the fall, is depicted in Blue.

The fractals for the corrective marked in Black are:

Possible Counts as a corrective:
W	5990.9	-	5967.7	=	23.2
X	5967.7	-	5984.35	=	-16.65		-71.7672
Y	5984.35	-	5953	=	31.35		135.1293
T1	5961.15	T2	5946.766	T3	5969.966
Fractals of W:
A	5990.9	-	5975.6	=	15.3
B	5975.6	-	5980.6	=	-5		-32.6797
C	5980.6	-	5967.7	=	12.9		84.31373
T1	5965.3	T2	5955.814	T3	5971.114
Fractals of Y:
A	5984.35	-	5956.55	=	27.8
B	5956.55	-	5972.2	=	-15.65		-56.295
C	5972.2	-	5953	=	19.2		69.06475
T1	5944.4	T2	5927.164	T3	5954.964

The Trade Setup:


Continue as per yesterday's post.   SL for shorts may shift to 5991.

NIfty Trade Setup for 06 February 2013 : Views based on Technical Analysis and EW

Yesterday I mentioned about two Wolves (Red lines in the chart below) in Nifty and expected a rise towards 6090, as there was a potential +ve divergence developing, to meet the targets indicated by these wolves.   However, the first tick went way below my expectations, disturbing the entire thought process and mandating a re-look at the charts.

Nifty is moving in a channel which is shown in the brown.  As I see it, the fall may be developing into a DZZ and could be targeting 5913.   Going by the channel, Nifty may rise to test the Brown UTL and then fall again to Brown LTL to complete Y.C.   The fractals, as I see, are as below:

W	6112	-	5987	=	125
X	5987	-	6038	=	-51		-40.8
Y	6038	-	5913	=	125		100	(Projected)

Fractals of W:

A	6112	-	6042	=	70
B	6042	-	6057	=	-15		-21.4286
C	6057	-	5987	=	70		100

Fractals of Y:

A	6038	-	5946	=	92
B	5946	-	6005	=	-59		-64.1304
C	6005	-	5913	=	92		100	(Projected)

One should not forget that Y has the potential to go upto 5836 as per these fractals.   Similarly, Y.C has the potential to go upto 5856. 

A pictorial depiction of these counts and a reminder of the wolves (in red) is in the chart below:

The Trade Setup

Shorts could be initiated near 6000 with SL at 6006 (which will be way beyond the Brown UTL) for a target of 5915.

For the bullish, Longs can be initiated close to today's low with a SL at 5940 for a target of 6000, 6040 6100.

And for those, who want to be absolutely sure,  if the waves develop the way I am expecting,  look for a +ve divergence between 5946 (today's low) and the new low that could be created by day after tomorrow, to initiate trades on the long side with SL below the lowest point. Target could be very close to or above the recent high of 6112. 

Nifty : View for 05 February 2013 based on Technical Analysis

The EW fractals as I perceive could be counted as :

A 6112 - 6043 = 69 B 6043 - 6070 = -27 -39.1304 C 6070 - 5970 = 100 144.9275 (Projected)

Fractals of C as an ED may be shaping up as :

Fractals of C
C.1	6070	-	6025	=	45
C.2	6025	-	6053	=	-28		-62.2222
C.3	6053	-	5987	=	66		146.6667
C.4	5987	-	6038	=	-51		-77.2727
C.5	6038	-	5972	=	66		146.6667

There are two wolves visible.  The one on the conservative side is targeting 6050 and one on the aggressive side is targeting 6100.  This could shape as a 3 wave form B at one degree higher, followed by C which could go below the low that would be made during the current fall (expectedly 5970)


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To see a detailed analysis, visit my notes on facebook.