Nifty 03 November 2014 : A long way to go

My last detailed post on Nifty was posted at Nifty 04 September 2014 : Last week did clear some clouds but what next?.  Subsequent moves have shaped up more or less in that manner.  On last trading day, Nifty breached an important level at 8264, which now mandates Nifty to go beyond 8540.  While that condition is set, how much beyond could Nifty scale in this rise?

The limits are set by two counts:

Firstly:   The counts of ED restrict the fifth to 1.618 times the third in the following manner, which limits the move to 8758.

i	:	7422	-	7841	=	419
ii	:	7841	-	7540	=	-301	(	-71.8377	)
iii	:	7540	-	8180	=	640	(	152.7446	)
iv	:	8180	-	7723	=	-457	(	-71.4063	)
v	:	7723	-	8758	=	1035	(	161.7188	)

Secondly:   The counts of last move may shape as a 3 wave form, or may develop into an ED themselves.  I am trying to fix the move as 3 wave while keeping the ED as alternate.

The 3 wave form of the rise, at its best, could shape up as

A  :  7723  - 8540   = 817 B  :  8540  - 7930   = -610   ( -74.6634 ) C  :  7930  - 8757   = 827   ( 101.224 )

Needless to say that every fractal here is shown as a projection.  The actual values as well as their respective forms may differ.

The current rise from 7723 seems to be shaping up as an impulse and may at its largest fractal show us following values:

1	:	7723.95	-	7933.55	=	209.6
2	:	7933.55	-	7874	=	-59.55	(	28.41126	)
3	:	7874	-	8450	=	576	(	274.8092	)
4	:	8450	-	8310	=	-140	(	24.30556	)
5	:	8310	-	8540	=	230	(	109.7328	)

My take is that the correctives may not dip below 8250 now till completion of A.

Since this rise may be shaping up as the final fractal for the move from either 5118 or 5933, the subsequent corrective should come down by 600-700 points at the minimum.

I would prefer to shift my sight to Jun 2015.  A covering position of 8900 or 9000 CEs of Jun 2015 may be taken now.  A counter position in same or next month expiry (the month in which position is being taken or next month) via 8500 PEs or 8400 PEs as well as 7900 PEs of Jun 2015 expiry may be taken when Nifty reaches above 8540.  If Nifty dips to 7930, the counter positions of the closer month expiry should be closed and CEs of 8100/8200 should be initiated.

This may be repeated again when Nifty reaches 8700+ with June positions intact.

God bless.

HAPPY DEEPAWALI

BEST WISHES AND A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS DEEPAWALI TO ALL READERS.

MAY GODDESS LAKSHMI SHOWER HER BLESSINGS UPON ALL OF YOU.

GOD BLESS.

Getting Away

This Saturday, I am going on vacations, which should help me get away from the charts for couple of weeks.  I will try and track the Nifty but it is unlikely that I would be able to do any worthwhile technical analysis during this time.

A much awaited break for me.  Hope to get back after 21 November this year.

Best of Luck to the readers.

Nifty Breached 7745 but Wolves Must be Kept Track of

In my last post I had talked about couple of Wolfe Waves developing in Nifty.  Today's fall has completed the 5th wave of the incomplete wave.

While the lack of divergence may indicate further fall,  the things may turn around if Nifty starts closing above the baseline.  Things do look gloomy for now but  a change may not take much efforts from bulls to kick start these wolves.

SUGGEST KEEP AN EYE ON THEM..

Nifty on 13 October 2014 : Wolfe Waves - One on Target, Second yet to Launch

The Wolfe Waves aka WWs are depicted in blue and black in the chart below :

Indications are that Nifty may head for 8100+ very rapidly.  Possible paths are depicted on the chart.

7740 remains the SL for longs.  Shorts however must keep SL at 7975 or 8035 as per own risk appetite.