DLF has been in news for a long time, courtesy Mr Robert Vadera, the famous or rather infamous son in law, and his associates. I have written about DLF in past. But the situation that is prevalent, prompted a review.
Most of the recent write ups on DLF are giving bullish sentiments. Some saying 140 and some 150+ as their Target. IMHP, DLF is almost at the end of its current rise. This correction has already entered the gap that was created on the day of recent fall and I find it difficult for DLF to stretch much beyond 138.
On Friday, I missed the news and shorted it at around 134 and kept wondering about the crisp rise that continued to sustain the entire day.
That brought me back to the charts and my perception is that it is ripe for another big dip of 61.15 or more from wherever it starts. The nearest low could be seen very close to the expiry day. Since 100.15 was the last low, a short around 137 for a target below 100 (and when that happens, EW will mandate 61.2 for the fall) with a SL of 140.25 may be attempted.
What would cause such fall is anybody's guess. But as I have mentioned earlier, that TA at times tends to create news that no one expects. Seems Vadera is in for a big run for his money. Let us keep our fingers crossed.
PS. I would love to have the views of the readers here on the central question. Which is....What could cause a fall of 61.2 points in DLF in next 13.days?
Sunday 9 November 2014
Sunday 2 November 2014
Nifty 03 November 2014 : A long way to go
My last detailed post on Nifty was posted at Nifty 04 September 2014 : Last week did clear some clouds but what next?. Subsequent moves have shaped up more or less in that manner. On last trading day, Nifty breached an important level at 8264, which now mandates Nifty to go beyond 8540. While that condition is set, how much beyond could Nifty scale in this rise?
The limits are set by two counts:
Firstly: The counts of ED restrict the fifth to 1.618 times the third in the following manner, which limits the move to 8758.
Secondly: The counts of last move may shape as a 3 wave form, or may develop into an ED themselves. I am trying to fix the move as 3 wave while keeping the ED as alternate.
The 3 wave form of the rise, at its best, could shape up as
Needless to say that every fractal here is shown as a projection. The actual values as well as their respective forms may differ.
The current rise from 7723 seems to be shaping up as an impulse and may at its largest fractal show us following values:
My take is that the correctives may not dip below 8250 now till completion of A.
Since this rise may be shaping up as the final fractal for the move from either 5118 or 5933, the subsequent corrective should come down by 600-700 points at the minimum.
I would prefer to shift my sight to Jun 2015. A covering position of 8900 or 9000 CEs of Jun 2015 may be taken now. A counter position in same or next month expiry (the month in which position is being taken or next month) via 8500 PEs or 8400 PEs as well as 7900 PEs of Jun 2015 expiry may be taken when Nifty reaches above 8540. If Nifty dips to 7930, the counter positions of the closer month expiry should be closed and CEs of 8100/8200 should be initiated.
This may be repeated again when Nifty reaches 8700+ with June positions intact.
God bless.
The limits are set by two counts:
Firstly: The counts of ED restrict the fifth to 1.618 times the third in the following manner, which limits the move to 8758.
| i | : | 7422 | - | 7841 | = | 419 | |||
| ii | : | 7841 | - | 7540 | = | -301 | ( | -71.8377 | ) |
| iii | : | 7540 | - | 8180 | = | 640 | ( | 152.7446 | ) |
| iv | : | 8180 | - | 7723 | = | -457 | ( | -71.4063 | ) |
| v | : | 7723 | - | 8758 | = | 1035 | ( | 161.7188 | ) |
Secondly: The counts of last move may shape as a 3 wave form, or may develop into an ED themselves. I am trying to fix the move as 3 wave while keeping the ED as alternate.
The 3 wave form of the rise, at its best, could shape up as
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Needless to say that every fractal here is shown as a projection. The actual values as well as their respective forms may differ.
The current rise from 7723 seems to be shaping up as an impulse and may at its largest fractal show us following values:
| 1 | : | 7723.95 | - | 7933.55 | = | 209.6 | |||
| 2 | : | 7933.55 | - | 7874 | = | -59.55 | ( | 28.41126 | ) |
| 3 | : | 7874 | - | 8450 | = | 576 | ( | 274.8092 | ) |
| 4 | : | 8450 | - | 8310 | = | -140 | ( | 24.30556 | ) |
| 5 | : | 8310 | - | 8540 | = | 230 | ( | 109.7328 | ) |
My take is that the correctives may not dip below 8250 now till completion of A.
Since this rise may be shaping up as the final fractal for the move from either 5118 or 5933, the subsequent corrective should come down by 600-700 points at the minimum.
I would prefer to shift my sight to Jun 2015. A covering position of 8900 or 9000 CEs of Jun 2015 may be taken now. A counter position in same or next month expiry (the month in which position is being taken or next month) via 8500 PEs or 8400 PEs as well as 7900 PEs of Jun 2015 expiry may be taken when Nifty reaches above 8540. If Nifty dips to 7930, the counter positions of the closer month expiry should be closed and CEs of 8100/8200 should be initiated.
This may be repeated again when Nifty reaches 8700+ with June positions intact.
God bless.
Thursday 23 October 2014
HAPPY DEEPAWALI
BEST WISHES AND A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS DEEPAWALI TO ALL READERS.
MAY GODDESS LAKSHMI SHOWER HER BLESSINGS UPON ALL OF YOU.
GOD BLESS.
MAY GODDESS LAKSHMI SHOWER HER BLESSINGS UPON ALL OF YOU.
GOD BLESS.
Saturday 18 October 2014
Getting Away
This Saturday, I am going on vacations, which should help me get away from the charts for couple of weeks. I will try and track the Nifty but it is unlikely that I would be able to do any worthwhile technical analysis during this time.
A much awaited break for me. Hope to get back after 21 November this year.
Best of Luck to the readers.
A much awaited break for me. Hope to get back after 21 November this year.
Best of Luck to the readers.
Thursday 16 October 2014
Nifty Breached 7745 but Wolves Must be Kept Track of
In my last post I had talked about couple of Wolfe Waves developing in Nifty. Today's fall has completed the 5th wave of the incomplete wave.
While the lack of divergence may indicate further fall, the things may turn around if Nifty starts closing above the baseline. Things do look gloomy for now but a change may not take much efforts from bulls to kick start these wolves.
SUGGEST KEEP AN EYE ON THEM..
While the lack of divergence may indicate further fall, the things may turn around if Nifty starts closing above the baseline. Things do look gloomy for now but a change may not take much efforts from bulls to kick start these wolves.
SUGGEST KEEP AN EYE ON THEM..
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